internally and geopolitically, will have a major
impact on the region, and on US and Western interests.
Shifting political dynamics; debates over identity,
ethnicity and the role of religion in the state; and
the further development of civil society will figure
prominently in Turkey's domestic agenda. The road to
Turkish membership in the EU will be long and
difficult, and EU member states will evaluate Turkey's
candidacy not only on the basis of economic
performance, but on how well it tackles this
comprehensive agenda. Part of Turkey's success will
hinge on the effectiveness of a growing private sector
in advancing Turkey's reform efforts and its goal of
full integration in the West. NATO's involvement in
the Ballkans and expected enlargement in southern
Europe will increase ties between Turkey and the West.
By dint of its history, location, and interests,
Turkey will continue to pay attention to its neighbors
to the north—in the Caucasus and Central Asia—and to
the south and east—Syria, Iraq and Iran. With few
exceptions, these states will continue to struggle
with questions of governance. As Turkey crafts
policies toward the countries in these regions, no
single issue will dominate its national security
agenda. Rather, Ankara will find itself having to cope
with regional rivalries—including what policies to
adopt toward internal and interstate
conflicts—proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction, the politics and economics of energy
transport, and water rights.
For the full report, see:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/#link13f